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Adobe Predicts US Online Holiday Sales to Shatter All Previous Records with 33% YoY Increase



Insights and trends identified by Adobe indicate consumer trends likely to be seen globally as almost all countries have been impacted by the pandemic

Adobe Predicts US Online Holiday Sales to Shatter All Previous Records with 33% YoY Increase

Adobe has predicted that online American holiday sales will beat previous annual records with a 33% year-on-year increase.

President, international at Adobe, Paul Robson, commented: “We are expecting online sales to hit record highs this holiday season. In the U.S. in particular we anticipate a 33% increase. Our data has shown that deprived of a traditional store experience since the start of the pandemic, an increasing number of consumers are flocking online at incredible speed. This is not unique to the US, but instead is identifiable in all countries impacted by continued lockdown restrictions. Our forecasts indicate that much of that shift will be permanent."

Paul continued: "Strikingly, smaller retailers and local businesses will benefit more in the coming months from this shift. Throughout the pandemic, customers have remained loyal to their local independents, with over half of all customers committing to supporting smaller, independent businesses online this holiday season. This year is unlike any in the past, and for the first time we are no longer referring to peak holiday sales as Cyber Week - it’s now Cyber Month as we dial up to Christmas.”   

Predicted Records 

Daily Records: Online sales will surpass $2 billion every day between Nov. 1-21 and increase to $3 billion a day Nov. 22–Dec 3.  

Black Friday, Cyber Monday: Black Friday is projected to generate $10 billion in online sales, a 39% YoY increase; Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the year with $12.7 billion, a 35% jump YoY.  

Smartphone Share: Americans will spend $28.1 billion more on their smartphones vs. 2019, accounting for 42% of all online sales, a 55% increase YoY.  

Small vs. large retailers: Small retailers ($10M-$50M annual online revenue) will see a larger boost to revenue (107% boost) vs. large retailers (84% boost). More details below.

Most anticipated gifts/toys: Rainbocorns, Cutetitos, Little Live Pets, Star Wars toys and LEGO sets. Video games: Cyberpunk 2077, Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War, Spider-Man: Miles Morales, Mario Kart Home Circuit, Super Mario 3D All Stars. Game consoles: Playstation 5, Xbox Series X, Nintendo Switch.  

New shoppers: Adobe expects 9% of all holiday customers to be net new online shoppers due to the pandemic, and conversion rates are expected to increase significantly (13%). The Average Order Value (AOV) is expected to stay flat YoY.

Election Week: From 2nd - 6th November, online sales will total $16.3 billion. On the day after the election, online sales will grow 11% slower than the full week. 

Additional Predictions

Cyber Week turns into Cyber Months: In the weeks leading up to the Thanksgiving weekend, 1st - 22nd November.  Adobe predicts that consumers will spend $56 billion, a 37% YoY increase. Amid concerns around shipping delays, product demand and the uncertain economic environment, retailers will start holiday sales much earlier this season. A record 33% of consumers plan to have their holiday shopping complete by Black Friday.  

Early Discounts in November

Significant holiday discounting will begin within the first two weeks of November and build to the deepest category price drops over Black Friday through Cyber Monday:    

- Black Friday will be the best day to get discounts on appliances (discounted by 11% on average) and TVs (19%)  

- Small Business Saturday (28th November) is expected to drive the steepest discounts for computers (18%) 

- Best discounting for toys (20%) and furniture (10%) will fall on Sunday 29th November, the day before Cyber Monday 

- Sporting goods will offer the best deals on 13th December (27%) with electronics on Dec. 18 (19%) 

- 26th December will see the best prices on tools and home improvement items (12%)

Affordable and free shipping options will be in high demand

- 64% of consumers say they’re not going to pay for expedited shipping this year, signalling to retailers that free shipping cut-off dates need to be communicated early.  

- Retailers will offer the cheapest shipping options on the day after Cyber Monday.  

- In lieu of friend and family gatherings this year, Americans are expected to spend 18% more on gifts directly delivered from the retailer to people they might otherwise see in-person 

Curbside pickup evolves, remains popular option amid in-store shopping concerns: BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store), now including curbside pick-up, will have over 40% more orders vs. 2019. As people panic buy the week leading up to Christmas, BOPIS is expected to top 50% of all orders at retailers that offer BOPIS. 

Some Positive News for Small Retailers

- Small retailers ($10M-$50M annual online revenue) will see a larger boost to their revenue (107% increase), vs. only 84% increase for large retailers (annual online revenue of over $1B). 

- However, large retailers will continue to dominate with online sales growing 55% YoY versus 8% for small retailers. 

- 51% of consumers plan to support small and local retailers on Small Business Saturday; 38% plan to shop at smaller retailers throughout the season. 

Uncertainty Around Spending During the  Election

 26% of consumers say that the outcome of the election will impact their holiday spending. Based on past elections, online sales were negatively impacted after the outcome was known. Online sales were down 14% the day after the 2016 election, and online sales dropped by 6% the day after the 2018 mid-term election.

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Categories: Marketing, Business Services

Adobe, Wed, 28 Oct 2020 13:56:57 GMT