GREENPEACE

LOS SANTOS +3oC

RESEARCH AND DATA

All the research and development of Los Santos +3oC were guided by the Greenpeace scientific team. This document is just a summary. The goal here is to clarify some of the climate-related hazards represented in-game. Not with scientific explanations, but in an overview and some pieces of evidence.

Gamification of real scientific predictions.

To create the Los Santos +3oC experience, we crossed real scientific predictions with the virtual map. This is only possible due to the fact that Los Santos, the city of GTA V, is a hyper-realistic replica of Los Angeles. And this is a city that will be affected by the climate crisis.

Thus, it was possible for the scientific team to discover what can happen in the real world and reproduce these effects in the game.

The database used at Los Santos +3oC merges site-specific scientific forecasts as well as global-scale forecasts. In this way, we were able to illustrate not only what will happen in L.A, but in many other cities around the world.

The option to represent a +3oC scenario.

“World on course for more than 3-degree spike”.

United Nations

According to scientific predictions, the world today is heading towards warming that should reach up to 3oC before the end of the century.

Those predictions were based on the current scenario of greenhouse gas emissions. Even with the recent agreements, which are still theoretical, the number becomes the reference of inertia.

The moment of this +3oC varies in projections. But the certainty is that, if nothing changes, it will still happen in this century.

“Average annual temperatures across California could rise between 2.5 and 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit early this century (2006-2039); between 4.4 and 5.8 degrees F in mid-century between 2040 and 2069; and between 5.6 and 8.8 degrees F by late century, between 2070 and 2100”.
Yale Climate

“A 1.5-degree change in Celsius is equal to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit; 3 degrees Celsius is 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit”.
Climate Central

Understanding the original Los Santos map.

“The G.T.A. V team conducted more than a hundred days of research in Los Angeles, taking thousands of photographs and hours of digital video—all of which was later transmogrified into the computer-generated realism of Los Santos”.

The New Yorker

Los Santos is the most accurate city simulator out there. The complexity of immersion and detail are impressive. On sites like grandtheftdata.com/, you can find more than 1,170 real spots represented in the game.

Disclaim: Los Santos does not follow the same geographic design as Los Angeles. It is a reinterpretation, where real places are arranged in a unique setting. For the best gameplay experience.

Take a look at the main changes in the game and their related scientific prediction

Flood in coastal areas.

“The model shows the Santa Monica Boardwalk underwater, projections climate scientists said could come true in the next few centuries if temperatures and sea levels rise without humans intervening”
CBS

According to scientific predictions, a huge area of the coastal region of Los Angeles will be affected by sea-level rise. Among them, are well-known areas of Los Santos, such as Del Perro (Santa Monica), Vespucci (Venice), and Puerto Del Sol (Marina Del Rey).

“The building stock and roads in the Venice area are sensitive to storm-related flooding, tidal flooding, and erosion. The impacts of sea-level rise could lead to damaged and/or uninhabitable homes, businesses, schools, and public buildings”
University of Southern California

The problems of rising sea levels also affect the entire traffic area. In the game, this directly affects the gameplay. In the real world, the consequences will be even worse.

“Both Venice and Playa del Rey are highly exposed to flooding already and will be even more so as sea level rises”.
University of Southern California

In order to have a geographical view of the effect of the sea increase in all these regions, we used a visual projection developed by the Climate Central. This way, the Greenpeace scientific team was able to guide a similar reinterpretation in GTA Online.

“The images show what “sea-level rise” would look like on a planet that warmed by 3 degrees Celsius. The renderings include a look at particularly vulnerable Los Angeles County communities, like Santa Monica, Long Beach and Marina Del Rey”.
Climate Central

For your information, these are some predictions: Del Perro (Santa Mônica) and Puerto Del Sol (Marina Del Rey)

Climate refugees all over Los Santos.

In this +3°C context, the issue of climate refugees is both a global and a local challenge.

This way, our team merged both predictions to understand how the climate refugees situation would be in a city like Los Angeles.

It's important to remember that there are different reasons that make someone become a climate refugee: rising sea levels, wars, extreme temperatures, and torrential rains, among others.

“An estimated 12% of the current global population living on land could be threatened under long-term future sea-level rise under the 3 degrees Celsius scenario”.
Scott Kulp (Climate Central)

“The world can now expect that with every degree of temperature increase, roughly a billion people will be pushed outside the zone in which humans have lived for thousands of years”.
New York Times

“Today, 1% of the world is a barely livable hot zone. By 2070, that portion could go up to 19%”. New York Times

Homeless: climate change = economic crisis = unemployment.

In addition to those directly displaced by the climate crisis, Los Santos +3oC also represented those who were victims of the resulting economic crisis. Los Angeles has a strong tourism-based economy, mainly in the coastal areas. Due to the flood, unemployment had risen.

“Tourism is a large part of Venice’s economy – viewed by some as the second largest tourist attraction in California, after Disneyland. Many middle

and low-income residents work in the industry and will therefore be economically impacted if sea-level rise takes a toll on the area’s tourism. (...) A high number of people and businesses are located in areas potentially exposed to flooding from sea-level rise”.
University of Southern California

SMOG: the visible air pollution.

Los Angeles, in the last century, was once known for its SMOG. But thanks to pollution-reducing policies, it was contained. In this 3oC context, air pollution is once again a huge local problem.

This way, respiratory diseases become increasingly common and even more deadly.

“Smog problems will grow the most away from the ocean, in East Los Angeles. Relative to West Los Angeles, East LA’s communities are poorer and have more Hispanic residents”.
Scientific American

Air pollution was also represented in effects on the gameplay. Without masks, players lose “life” (when it runs out, the character dies).

“Air pollution contributes to heart disease, strokes, lung cancer, and other respiratory diseases. It causes an estimated 7 million premature deaths every year. (...) Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees will help reduce air pollution, death, and disease”.
Antonio Guterres (United Nations)

Massive reduction of the Joshua Tree species.

Disclaim: Joshua Tree is a very iconic tree in GTA. There is a huge park called Senora Park which is a virtual representation of the real-world Joshua Park.

According to predictions, the Joshua Tree will have its population greatly reduced with the increase in global temperature. They are very vulnerable to global warming.

“If greenhouse gas emissions are seriously curbed and summer temperatures are limited to an increase of 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius), about 19% of the park's Joshua tree habitat would survive after the year 2070”.

Live Science

Animals extinction.

On the main predictions, 3-degree warming means a reduction of almost 1⁄3 of all animal species. During the development of the experience, we considered the same proportion for the area represented by the game.

“In 50 years, (...) the world may have lost 1⁄3 of all its plant and animal species. A new study has found that warming temperatures will likely cause hundreds of species to go extinct”.
CBS News

The reduction of species was more drastic for birds. Because, in the real world, the predictions show that they will be more affected.

“The report predicts that if Earth continues to warm according to current trends—rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) —more than two-thirds of North America’s bird species will be vulnerable to extinction due to range loss”.
National Geographic

Water crisis.

Almost 60% of California's water supply comes from the Sierra Nevada. Which, in the metaverse of GTA Online, is represented by Mount Josiah and the region.

With the increase in temperature, the water from the snow starts to melt in the Winter and promotes a water shortage in the Summer. Resulting in a water crisis that we represented in reservoir drought and a special mission to deliver water to shelters.

“Warmer temperatures will increase rainfall during heavy wintertime precipitation events and reduce snowpack that usually melts throughout the spring and summer. This means mountain reservoirs that currently catch this runoff could be overwhelmed in the winter and dry in summer”. University of California (LA).

“Rising global temperatures affect runoff from the Sierra Nevada, which provides over 60% of California’s developed water supply. Over 80% of the runoff in the central and southern Sierra Nevada comes from the snow zone. In the wetter but lower-elevation northern Sierra, rainfall contributes over one-third of the annual runoff. The average snowline, the elevation above which most precipitation is snow, goes from about 5,000 feet elevation in the north to 7,000 feet in the south. On average, each 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 Celsius) of warming could push the snowline another 500 feet higher, reducing the snow total”.
University of California (LA).

Reduction of the water level in the lakes.

In the 3-degree warming context, predictions show a drastic reduction in the frequency of rainfall, which also causes a decrease in water at Los Angeles lakes and around the Globe.

“On the one hand, Los Angeles is predicted to receive 50 percent less rain than it does now, and the combination of less rain and more summer heat means a drier landscape that is more prone to fires”.
Scientific American

In Los Santos +3oC, the water level in the main lake, the Alamo Sea (which corresponds, in the real world, to the Salton Sea), was incredibly reduced. Players can now drive a car in someplace where they were always riding boats. We also made the chance of rain 50% less than on the conventional map.